Economist Who Predicted 2008 Crisis Warns of Possible U.S. Recession by End of 2025

Consumer slowdown and weak job growth raise concern

The economist who sounded the alarm before the 2008 financial crisis is now warning that the United States could tip into a recession before the end of 2025.

Zandi raises fresh concerns

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s, told reporters that the economy is showing worrying signs of weakness. He pointed to sluggish consumer spending, stagnant job growth, and widespread pessimism among households as early red flags. Zandi noted that more than half of U.S. industries are already reporting job cuts, and if layoffs begin to accelerate, “a recession may be inevitable.”

Spending slowdown

Data through July 2025 shows consumer spending barely moved compared with the end of 2024. That lack of momentum is unusual and troubling, Zandi said, because consumer demand is the backbone of the U.S. economy. Without it, business investment and hiring often slow as well, creating a domino effect across industries.

Employment picture

The labor market, which carried the economy through earlier years of uncertainty, is also showing strain. Job growth has cooled, and hiring freezes are spreading beyond manufacturing and retail. Zandi emphasized that employment is the single most important factor to watch in the months ahead.

Mixed signals from other analysts

Not all economists agree that a downturn is certain. Some point to steady GDP growth earlier in the year as a sign that the economy still has resilience. But even those who are more optimistic acknowledge that consumer sentiment remains historically low, and that makes the outlook fragile.

Why this matters

Zandi’s warnings matter because of his track record. He was among the few who foresaw the 2008 financial collapse, giving his current assessment more weight. His view is not that collapse is guaranteed, but that the conditions for a recession are in place unless consumer spending and job growth rebound soon.

Bottom line

The U.S. economy has been defying predictions for years, but Zandi’s latest caution is a reminder that the fundamentals are shifting. Whether or not a recession arrives by late 2025, the warning signs are clear: households are tightening budgets, employers are cutting back, and confidence is slipping. The months ahead will show if the slowdown deepens into a full recession.