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Trump might indeed win Minnesota in 2020…

Earlier this week, President Trump predicted he would win Minnesota in 2020, saying voters were fed up with Congresswoman Ilhan Omar.

“In 2016 I almost won Minnesota,” Trump tweeted. “In 2020, because of America hating anti-Semite Rep. Omar, & the fact that Minnesota is having its best economic year ever, I will win the State! ‘We are going to be a nightmare to the President,’ she say. No, AOC Plus 3 are a Nightmare for America!”

Now, election analyst Chris Cillizza of CNN is saying Trump might be right. In an article for CNN, Cillizza notes that Trump lost Minnesota very narrowly in 2016–Hillary Clinton got about 44,000 more votes. But Minnesota, a traditionally blue state, has gone more Republican in recent years. Cillizza says it’s because the state has a large population of older white rural residents.

“Now as to the broader competitiveness of Minnesota, there’s no question the state has been trending more competitive for Republicans in recent years. In 2012, it was the 11th closest state — by margin of victory — as then-President Barack Obama won it by 7.6 points over Mitt Romney. In 2016, it was the 6th closest state, with Clinton winning by 1.5 points.
That’s in keeping with Trump’s gains more broadly in the industrial Midwest — putting Ohio out of reach and winning in places like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania — where GOP presidential nominees hadn’t won in decades,” Cillizza wrote.

In other words, Trump might indeed win Minnesota in 2020–but not because of Ilhan Omar.