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I’ve seen high-flying offense poop out in the playoffs and the Super Bowl

Way too often.

And that’s why I like the San Francisco 49ers over the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LIV.

Remember the 1999 St. Louis Rams and their “Greatest Show on Turf?” Feh. Eleven points in the NFC championship game, two touchdowns in winning Super Bowl XXXIV 23-16 over the Tennessee Titans. Two years later the Rams fell 20-17 to the New England Patriots in the Super Bowl.

The Patriots and Tom Brady rarely broke out on offense, considering how many titles they’ve won. They’ve never scored more than 34 points in the Super Bowl. Got 24 in one, 14 and 17 in losses to the New York Giants. And two years ago they beat the Los Angeles Rams 13-3.

All together now … defense wins championships. And a strong running game makes the defense even better.

Heck, go back to Super Bowl XXV. The New York Giants kept the Buffalo Bills’ up-tempo offense off the field by running the football in a 20-19 victory. The Bills had a shade less than 20 minutes of possession time. The Giants rushed for 172 yards on 39 attempts.

The 49ers ranked second in the NFL in rushing during the regular season and built on that handiwork in their two playoff games. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo threw just eight passes in the NFC title game win over the Green Bay Packers as the Niners rushed the football 42 times for 285 yards. In defeating the Minnesota Vikings in the divisional round, they ran for 186.

The 49ers also ranked No. 2 in total defense, while the Chiefs were in the middle of the pack and allowed 4.9 yards per carrying.

Kansas City’s defense improved as the season went on but it isn’t as solid as the 49ers’. Its offense has more pop with quarterback Patrick Mahomes, but the offense is not the deciding factor in the Super Bowl (sez I). Defense wins.

The pick here: 49ers 27, Chiefs 23.

 
 
Post By: Larry Weisman, a longtime sportswriter for USA TODAY, blogs for Twistity.com. Follow him on Twitter @MrLarryWeisman